Post by Lonzo'sBallMagic'sJohnson on Jun 23, 2018 21:50:30 GMT -8
So, I tried to estimate the Lakers cap situation using these sites as tools:
www.spotrac.com/nba/los-angeles-lakers/cap/
&
www.cbafaq.com/salarycap
Lebron's Max Salary - $35.35 mil
PG's Max - $30.3 mil
Total - $65.65 mil
After we renounce all free agents except Julius and cut Ennis we will be at:
$51,034,994 mil cap space
(Complications to get this number:
In the off-season, teams are charged $815,615 for every open roster spot they have under 12,
excluding free-agents with cap holds which includes first round draft picks. Lakers would be charged $2,446,845.
I'm not sure if the open roster spot charge is alleviated the instant you sign a free agent. Meaning,
I wonder if you can add another $815,615 to your cap room for each free agent you are signing, before you sign them?
I added Wagner's $1,746,840 cap hold. Second round picks don't have a cap hold and
you can wait until Sep, 15th to sign them)
This puts as at minus $14,615,006 from what we need to sign LBJ and PG. (or $12,983,776 if you take away two open roster spot penalties)
Our options:
Cut Zubac - $1,544,951 minus roster spot charge of $815,615 = Save $729,336
Cut Bryant - $1,378,242 minus roster spot charge of $815,615 = Save $562,627
Stretch Deng - Save $10,638,000 on salary minus roster spot charge of $815,615 = Save a total of $9,822,385
Renounce Randle - Save $12,447,726 minus roster spot charge of $815,615 = Save $11,632,111
Renounce Wagner - Save $1,746,840 $1,378,242 minus roster spot charge of $815,615 = Save $931,225 (Only technically an option)
(I didn't include trading Deng because it's a complicated option in that it would be difficult to accomplish and it
could also have different adds and subtractions depending on who we give up and take back)
Mistake: The new charge for an open roster spot in 2018 is $831,311. Only a $16,000 difference. I won't
change what I've written but I'll try to calculate that from now on.
Conclusions:
Stretching Deng alone only gets us within $3-5 mil of signing LBJ and PG. Depending on the roster spot penalty situation.
Renouncing Randle and cutting Zubac and Bryant does not quite get us there either. Even if we are charged 2 less open roster penalties before we sign them.
(With this option we could hold on to Deng to either trade him as an expiring contracting or let his contract expire in 2 years without stretching him. So we
wouldn't have to be penalized the extra 3 years.)
Stretching Deng and renouncing Randle gets us there with an extra $5-8 mil to spare.
It looks like any scenario that does not involve both stretching Deng AND renouncing Randle (or trading Deng while taking no salary back) is going to take some kind of less than max contract from Lebron and/or George.
Likely/possible scenario outcomes:
1) We stretch Deng and renounce Randle. Sign LBJ and PG to max deals. Use the extra cash to sign a free agent.
2) We trade Deng and lose some very valuable pieces. Sign LBJ and PG to max deals. Keep Randle.
3) We stretch Deng and cut Zubac and/or Bryant. LBJ and/or PG take a pay cut. We keep Randle.
4) We renounce Randle and cut Zubac and/or Bryant. LBJ and/or PG take a very minor, negligible pay cut. We hold on to Deng for Now.
I kept the scenarios where we pay max contracts as the most likely because we can only hope, not expect them to take less.
As Lakers fans we have to hope for scenario 3. I hope they are willing to sacrifice to be on a better team, but they are already
sacrificing by not resigning with their current teams. You'll notice I did not include any scenario where we don't sign Lebron and PG(LOL)
because I really believe it's happening, just not sure of the specifics.
That was a deep dive for me but at least now I know exactly what the situation looks like and can have realistic expectations for the outcomes
and not expect fantasy scenarios. Basically, the only way we keep Randle is a dream scenario where LBJ and PG take a pay cut... or a dream scenario in which we only have to give up a pick or two to dump Deng. I'm mentally preparing myself to lose Randle. Feel free to add your two cents.
www.spotrac.com/nba/los-angeles-lakers/cap/
&
www.cbafaq.com/salarycap
Lebron's Max Salary - $35.35 mil
PG's Max - $30.3 mil
Total - $65.65 mil
After we renounce all free agents except Julius and cut Ennis we will be at:
$51,034,994 mil cap space
(Complications to get this number:
In the off-season, teams are charged $815,615 for every open roster spot they have under 12,
excluding free-agents with cap holds which includes first round draft picks. Lakers would be charged $2,446,845.
I'm not sure if the open roster spot charge is alleviated the instant you sign a free agent. Meaning,
I wonder if you can add another $815,615 to your cap room for each free agent you are signing, before you sign them?
I added Wagner's $1,746,840 cap hold. Second round picks don't have a cap hold and
you can wait until Sep, 15th to sign them)
This puts as at minus $14,615,006 from what we need to sign LBJ and PG. (or $12,983,776 if you take away two open roster spot penalties)
Our options:
Cut Zubac - $1,544,951 minus roster spot charge of $815,615 = Save $729,336
Cut Bryant - $1,378,242 minus roster spot charge of $815,615 = Save $562,627
Stretch Deng - Save $10,638,000 on salary minus roster spot charge of $815,615 = Save a total of $9,822,385
Renounce Randle - Save $12,447,726 minus roster spot charge of $815,615 = Save $11,632,111
Renounce Wagner - Save $1,746,840 $1,378,242 minus roster spot charge of $815,615 = Save $931,225 (Only technically an option)
(I didn't include trading Deng because it's a complicated option in that it would be difficult to accomplish and it
could also have different adds and subtractions depending on who we give up and take back)
Mistake: The new charge for an open roster spot in 2018 is $831,311. Only a $16,000 difference. I won't
change what I've written but I'll try to calculate that from now on.
Conclusions:
Stretching Deng alone only gets us within $3-5 mil of signing LBJ and PG. Depending on the roster spot penalty situation.
Renouncing Randle and cutting Zubac and Bryant does not quite get us there either. Even if we are charged 2 less open roster penalties before we sign them.
(With this option we could hold on to Deng to either trade him as an expiring contracting or let his contract expire in 2 years without stretching him. So we
wouldn't have to be penalized the extra 3 years.)
Stretching Deng and renouncing Randle gets us there with an extra $5-8 mil to spare.
It looks like any scenario that does not involve both stretching Deng AND renouncing Randle (or trading Deng while taking no salary back) is going to take some kind of less than max contract from Lebron and/or George.
Likely/possible scenario outcomes:
1) We stretch Deng and renounce Randle. Sign LBJ and PG to max deals. Use the extra cash to sign a free agent.
2) We trade Deng and lose some very valuable pieces. Sign LBJ and PG to max deals. Keep Randle.
3) We stretch Deng and cut Zubac and/or Bryant. LBJ and/or PG take a pay cut. We keep Randle.
4) We renounce Randle and cut Zubac and/or Bryant. LBJ and/or PG take a very minor, negligible pay cut. We hold on to Deng for Now.
I kept the scenarios where we pay max contracts as the most likely because we can only hope, not expect them to take less.
As Lakers fans we have to hope for scenario 3. I hope they are willing to sacrifice to be on a better team, but they are already
sacrificing by not resigning with their current teams. You'll notice I did not include any scenario where we don't sign Lebron and PG(LOL)
because I really believe it's happening, just not sure of the specifics.
That was a deep dive for me but at least now I know exactly what the situation looks like and can have realistic expectations for the outcomes
and not expect fantasy scenarios. Basically, the only way we keep Randle is a dream scenario where LBJ and PG take a pay cut... or a dream scenario in which we only have to give up a pick or two to dump Deng. I'm mentally preparing myself to lose Randle. Feel free to add your two cents.
